Race Pace and Strategy Planner

Turn a recent race or time trial into a projected finish, equivalent times across every distance, target splits, and a full race-day pacing plan.

This tool is a guide only. This estimates times from your results. It can't see your training, health, or recovery, and it doesn't replace a coach or a properly periodised program. Use it to frame targets and pacing, then train and race on individual advice.

1Your recent race

Distance

5km 10km Half Mara Other

Time (h:mm:ss)

Add other recent races

One per line (distance km, time)

Two or more races at different distances fit your own endurance curve from data, more accurate than the profile setting, and let the goal check use your real range.

2The race you're planning

Target distance

5km 10km Half Mara Other

Goal time (optional, h:mm:ss)

Endurance profile (how your pace holds as distance grows) New to distance, under ~30 km/wk Recreational, ~30 to 50 km/wk Solid base, ~50 to 70 km/wk Well trained, ~70 to 100 km/wk Endurance specialist, 100+ km/wk

Use my training load

Weekly volume (km)

Quality sessions / wk

Strength sessions / wk (optional)

When set, this sets how well your pace holds over distance from your data and overrides the picker above. Volume drives durability most, quality sharpens speed, strength helps hold form late.

Pacing strategy

Negative Even Positive Undulating

3Refine for this event

Optional. Tick what applies to your race.

Course and terrain

Upload your course first. That unlocks the hiking model and the undulating pacing plan.

Upload a GPX file

Surface RoadTrack Grass or parkTrail, runnableTrail, technical

Elevation gain (m)

Elevation loss (m)

Editing the gain after a GPX upload rescales the course to your figure, useful since raw GPX ascent often reads high.

Build pace from the course profile

Reads your GPX and paces every kilometre on the measured cost of running up and down. Power-hiking steep climbs and run-walk breaks live in the Hiking and walking panel under Ultra options.

Weather and altitude

Temperature (°C)

Humidity (%)

Altitude (m)

Heat slows longer races most, and hits slower runners harder; humidity and altitude compound it. Set them to your race-morning forecast.

Ultra options beyond marathon only

Hiking and walking

Hike climbs above (%)

Uphill hike rate (m/h)

Walk descents below (%)

Descent walk rate (m/h)

Run-walk breaks on runnable ground

Run (min)

Walk (min)

Walk pace

Late-race fade NoneGentle, ~5%Moderate, ~10%Strong, ~16%

For the hard sections of an ultra. Climbs above the threshold are power-hiked, and descents below the descent threshold (0 is off) are walked. Needs a course loaded in Course and terrain.

Calibrate from a past ultra

Past ultra distance (km)

Time (h:mm:ss)

For an ultra target, this anchors your flat pace to a real ultra result instead of a generic curve, far more accurate for anyone with ultra history.

Checkpoints and cutoffs

Start time (24h)

Aid stop (min)

Checkpoints (one per line)

Each line is a distance in km and an optional cutoff as elapsed time from the start (h:mm:ss).

Calculate

Projected finish

1:40:04

Current to projected

Your recent result set against the race you're planning.

Recent result

→

Projected

Target splits

Slower than average On average Faster than average

Run the second half faster and it's a negative split, the pattern most distance racing evidence favours. Hold one pace and it's even. Start faster than you finish and it's positive. Follow the hills and it's undulating, holding effort steady so pace rises on the climbs and drops on the descents.

Equivalent performances

What your recent result projects to across the standard distances.

Distance	Time	Pace /km	Pace /mi

How this is worked out

Enter a result on the left and the projection updates as you type. Tick the panels you need for the event: weather and altitude, course and terrain with hiking and run-walk options, checkpoints and cutoffs, and calibration from a past ultra. Projections use Daniels VDOT across the standard racing distances, adjusted for your endurance profile, and a marathon-anchored model beyond them. Terrain plans use the measured Minetti cost of running on gradients.

These are model estimates, not guarantees. Predictions assume you're rested, fuelled, and trained for the target distance. The road numbers are well grounded; ultra and terrain numbers carry real uncertainty no model removes. Verify against your own recent efforts before committing to a race plan.